Scenario Development

Translating Public Input into Scenarios

This overview describes the process that Fregonese Associates uses to turn public workshop input into a series of computerized scenarios for testing and evaluation. Click here to download a PDF of this page.

Public Workshops

After the public workshops, the maps are collected, numbered and converted into image files. This allow us to import each image into a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) application.

Digitizing Workshop Results

Then, each workshop map is digitized using the Envision Tomorrow Scenario Builder, an add-on to ArcGIS developed by Fregonese Associates.

The end result is a database of information that tells us which cells in the study area were selected for each development type. At the same time, every written comment on the map is also entered into a database, which allows us to consider the comments by location and keywords.

Scenario Development

Once the maps have digitized, we begin to analyze the results. We use the database to create a series of summary maps that tell where most participants placed chips and what development types received the greatest number of “votes” by cell. Patterns and themes for growth and preservation begin to emerge.

After digitizing all the workshop maps and written comments, we use our analysis of the results to create a range of scenarios. We specifically focus on understanding the key themes which emerge from the workshop maps. We have found that there are often significant commonalities or several distinct directions taken by participants.

Evaluate Scenario Performance

Using the Scenario Builder software, we create multiple development scenarios based on the workshop input, current trends, and coordinated land use and transportation strategies. At this point, we create specific scenarios to test these themes and on the more detailed level are able to incorporate many of the specific ideas and areas of focus from the workshop maps. Through this process, both the “wisdom of crowds” and individual ideas, in combination with our professional experience, are used to create draft scenarios.

Once the scenarios have been built, we work with our clients to edit and modify the scenarios to best reflect a range of possible futures that can be evaluated. The final scenarios are then tested to determine their potential impacts on the region’s housing stock, land uses, transportation networks, the environment, open space, and economic development.